XRP continues to spark interest among crypto investors, and a recent analysis by leading market expert EGRAG has brought new clarity to the token’s potential path. By examining historical trends and chart indicators, EGRAG outlines key levels and signals that could shape XRP’s next major move.
In a recent analysis, EGRAG focused on XRP’s performance over a weekly timeframe, a perspective that helps to smooth out market noise and highlight longer-term trends. This evaluation comes as XRP sees a slight decline of 2.87% for the week, contrasting with Bitcoin’s modest gain of 0.51% over the same period. Despite general strength in the broader cryptocurrency landscape, XRP’s trajectory remains tied to specific technical levels.
Central to EGRAG’s analysis is the relationship between the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 33-week simple moving average (SMA). According to EGRAG, a key bearish signal—the so-called “death cross”—emerges when the 21 EMA dips below the 33 SMA. He identified this cross as an indicator of a trend shift from bullish to bearish.
When addressing his own investment strategy, EGRAG pointed to these moving averages as pivotal decision-making tools. Specifically, he mentioned that he plans to sell his XRP holdings as soon as the 21 EMA drops beneath the 33 SMA. This scenario, he believes, historically corresponds with a market top for XRP—even at times when other analysts might forecast continued growth.
Backing his theory with historical data, EGRAG highlighted two previous occasions when this bearish cross led to significant losses. In May 2018, XRP dropped a staggering 87%, and in November 2021, the decline reached 72%. Based on this pattern, he estimates that another similar event would result in a drop of roughly 79.5%, which reflects the average of those two previous downturns.
However, not all signals point downward. EGRAG also explored the optimistic outlook associated with a bullish cross, where the 21 EMA rises above the 33 SMA. Such an event occurred in September 2024, and XRP subsequently experienced a significant surge, climbing over 520% and breaching the $3 mark for the first time since 2018 between November 2024 and January 2025.
This rally isn’t an isolated case. Historical examples bolster EGRAG’s confidence in these indicators. In 2017, following a bullish cross, XRP rocketed 6,500% within just a couple of months. Another bullish cross in late 2017 led to a 1,600% gain, and in mid-2020, XRP rose 855% after such a pattern appeared, topping out at $1.96 by April 2021.
Based on these historical surges, EGRAG has mapped out several potential price milestones for XRP: $5.7, $9.5, and $37. However, he considers a climb to $27 to be the most plausible scenario. If achieved, this would translate to a 1,600% increase from XRP’s value during the bullish crossover in September 2024. At the time of writing, XRP currently trades at $2.37.
Looking beyond the potential highs, EGRAG also predicts a reversal could occur once XRP touches the $27 target. According to his chart-based pattern recognition, a bearish cross is likely to follow any sharp uptrend, potentially initiating another correction phase marked by that estimated 79.5% downturn.
For investors watching XRP, the relationship between the 21 EMA and 33 SMA offers crucial insights. These moving averages have historically signaled both incredible surges and severe declines. Whether XRP follows prior bullish momentum or succumbs to bearish pressure depends largely on how these technical signals evolve in the coming weeks and months.
Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused
As always, market movements are subject to a wide range of variables, but indicators such as moving average crosses remain powerful tools for both analysis and timing. Traders and long-term holders alike may benefit from paying close attention to these levels when making strategic decisions.
