XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge to 95%, Say Analysts

XRP continues to gain significant momentum as Bloomberg ETF analysts raise the approval odds for a spot XRP ETF to 95%. According to expert insights, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears increasingly inclined to greenlight spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for XRP, along with Litecoin (LTC) and Solana (SOL), by the end of 2024.

Analysts Raise Probability for XRP ETF Greenlight

In a recent update on X, Bloomberg ETF specialists James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas adjusted their ETF approval projections, lifting expectations from 90% to 95% for these three popular altcoins. This outlook underscores growing optimism that regulatory approval is not far off, with decision timelines anticipated in October.

James Seyffart remarked that a new surge of ETF launches could arrive in the second half of 2025, further reinforcing the trend of institutional asset managers increasingly tapping into crypto ETFs for diversified exposure.

Beyond XRP, the duo maintains a 90% probability for ETF approvals tied to Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX). By contrast, altcoins like Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) received more cautious estimates of 60% and 50%, respectively. These figures stem from the absence of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated futures products and the ambiguity surrounding their classification as securities by the SEC.

Regulatory Climate Shifts

Recent activity from the SEC suggests a shift toward more proactive engagement with ETF issuers. A Blockworks report indicated the regulator has urged firms to submit updated S-1 registration statements, with a commitment to review and respond within a 30-day timeframe. These requests have focused on clarifying how ETF managers will address staking strategies and the procedures for in-kind redemptions.

Eric Balchunas had previously advised investors to prepare for what he called an “altcoin ETF summer.” Echoing this sentiment, Seyffart speculated that approval of broad crypto index ETFs could materialize as early as July. There are also hopes for earlier decisions on filings linked to Solana and staking-powered ETF products.

Momentum Builds with Staking ETF Launch

This week will mark the debut of the REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF—the first of its kind in the United States—which offers investors a yield-generating opportunity through Solana staking. This launch represents steady progress following SEC pushback centered on structural offering concerns.

To align with diversification mandates, the REX Osprey fund is expected to allocate at least 40% of its assets toward other crypto-related exchange-traded products, focusing mainly on those listed in international markets.

Still, despite some advancement, delays persist. The SEC has frozen its timeline on Ethereum staking ETFs, including an application by Bitwise to adjust its spot Ethereum ETF to integrate staking yields. The regulator has opted to launch a formal examination on the investment implications tied to Ethereum’s proof-of-stake mechanics. Similarly, a decision regarding the Osprey Bitcoin Trust’s conversion to a spot BTC ETF has been postponed.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

This developing narrative signals a transitional phase in crypto regulation—one in which XRP and similar assets stand poised for mainstream financial market integration. If approved, a spot XRP ETF could pave the way for deeper institutional investment and reinforce XRP’s standing in the evolving digital asset ecosystem.