XRP Poised to Surge After Key EMA Retest, Analyst Says

XRP is once again capturing the spotlight as market analysts predict a significant price breakout, with one expert arguing that XRP is on the verge of a major rally following a successful retest of a critical exponential moving average (EMA). The bullish sentiment arrives amid a broader crypto market resurgence, which has also seen Bitcoin (BTC) pushing to new all-time highs.

Leading crypto analyst EGRAG believes that XRP’s latest moves are setting the groundwork for a substantial bullish advance, potentially propelling the asset toward impressive double-digit values. XRP recently reclaimed the $2.5 level, marking a substantial 14.42% gain over the last week. This resurgence positions XRP in a favorable spot technically, especially with its recent interaction with the 21-period EMA on the biweekly chart.

EGRAG’s model highlights a recurring pattern in XRP’s historical price movements. According to his analysis, past scenarios where XRP pierced through the 21 EMA only to later test it again as support have often preceded explosive upward moves. This technical setup has emerged again, amplifying optimism around XRP’s current trajectory.

Historic Patterns Suggest Bullish Continuation

Twice before in XRP’s history, this type of price action around the 21 EMA has served as a launchpad for massive gains. The first instance of this occurred in March 2017, as XRP broke through the 21 EMA after nearly two years of stagnation under the moving average. The result: a staggering 7,085% rally that took XRP to $0.3988 by May 2017. Though resistance briefly suppressed the surge, the asset held firm during a consolidation phase and successfully retested the 21 EMA. From there, XRP skyrocketed another 1,400%, peaking in January 2018.

The second occurrence was during the 2020–2021 bull cycle. In November 2020, XRP pushed 177% higher, breaking above the 21 EMA. After hitting a ceiling near $0.79, the asset retraced, yet maintained support at the moving average. Once again, this retest led to a sharp 455% rally, taking XRP to $1.90 by April 2021.

New Cycle Reflects Historical Momentum

EGRAG now asserts that a similar setup is unfolding in the current bull market. XRP surged 580% between November 2024 and January 2025, reaching a peak of $3.4 before encountering significant resistance. Resistance at that level led to a pullback, but once again, XRP found support at the 21 EMA. This successful retest mirrors the behavior observed during the two previous bull cycles, bolstering expectations for another strong upward move.

Based on prior performance, EGRAG has proposed three potential target levels. If XRP follows the 2020–2021 trajectory of a 455% increase, it could reach $11. Should it emulate the more explosive 1,400% rally of 2017–2018, it may climb as high as $30. Averaging these projections, a midpoint target sits around $20—a possible 924% gain from current levels. These figures resonate with a recent forecast in which BitBoy Crypto suggested XRP could hit $11 as part of a market cap expansion to $1.5 trillion.

Investor Strategy: Psychological Indicators

In addition to the technical analysis, EGRAG offers behavioral advice for market participants. He proposes a “smart and dumb” emotional indicator to guide trading decisions. According to him, investors should consider selling when they feel most confident or “smart,” and look to buy during moments of doubt when they feel “dumb.” This strategy, while unconventional in wording, echoes the timeless market principle of moving counter to emotional extremes.

Related: XRP Price: $12M Max Pain for Bears

As XRP continues to display signs of strength above the 21 EMA, market watchers will be keeping a close eye for further confirmation of this pattern. Should history indeed repeat itself, the coming weeks could be pivotal in determining whether XRP embarks on a trajectory toward the projected double-digit targets.