XRP price could witness a significant surge if the XRP Ledger (XRPL) secures 20% of the blooming tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market by 2026, according to recent projections fueled by growing industry conversations.

Institutional Momentum Backing XRP and Tokenized Assets

As the digital asset space matures, Ripple has been emphasizing the importance of crypto custody in institutional adoption. In a recent report, Ripple described custody as a crucial gateway for institutions, enabling effective risk management, regulatory compliance, and the development of new business models. The report linked this institutional need directly to the rapidly growing demand for tokenized real-world assets.

Ripple’s leadership and members of the XRP community have long suggested XRPL’s potential as a pivotal platform for RWA tokenization. Back in 2023, Ripple’s CTO David Schwartz shared that XRPL was actively shifting its strategic vision toward supporting RWA tokenization—an area also being pursued by financial giants such as JPMorgan and Bank of America. Institutional investor Bitwise recently reinforced this sentiment, stating that buying XRP could be the most efficient path for investors to tap into the tokenized asset revolution.

XRPL’s Current Footprint in the RWA Market

As of now, data from RWA.xyz places the total value of tokenized real-world assets on blockchain at $26.44 billion. Out of that, the XRP Ledger accounts for just $302.4 million—roughly 1.1% of the total RWA market.

Current size of the tokenized RWA market and XRPL’s share

Even with this modest stake, XRP currently trades at $2.9. Its market capitalization stands at $172.6 billion, supported by a circulating supply of 59.41 billion tokens.

So, what if XRPL obtains 20% of this sector by 2026? That’s exactly the question posed in a recent scenario explored using Google’s Gemini AI.

What If XRPL Controls 20% of RWA by 2026?

While Google Gemini clarified that accurate forecasts are limited due to unpredictable variables, it provided a hypothetical outlook to help visualize potential outcomes. The AI suggested that the total RWA market could grow to $70 billion by 2026. Should XRPL secure a 20% share, that would equate to $14 billion under its management.

Currently, XRP commands a $172.6 billion market cap out of just $302.4 million in RWA exposure. This translates to a market cap-to-RWA ratio of approximately 571 to 1. Applying the same multiple to a hypothetical $14 billion RWA market share, XRP’s market cap could theoretically balloon to nearly $8 trillion.

Gemini AI’s speculative XRP valuation model if XRPL reaches 20% RWA share

Distributing that among the current 59.41 billion tokens places XRP’s potential price around $134.5. However, this model is highly simplistic and based on several assumptions that may not translate linearly into market behavior.

Limitations in the XRP-RWA Correlation

It’s worth noting that recent surges in XRPL’s RWA numbers haven’t led to proportionate price increases for XRP. For example, the climb to $302 million in tokenized RWA did not trigger significant price movement. Therefore, while the possibility of large-scale adoption might influence long-term value, the price action may not follow a strict correlation.

Disclaimer from Gemini highlighting the speculative nature of the forecast

Related: XRP Price: $12M Max Pain for Bears

Overall, XRP’s future valuation—even under optimistic conditions—depends heavily on broader market trends, institutional adoption, development on XRPL, and the evolving utility of tokenized real-world assets.