XRP Buy Signal? XRPL Dev Reveals Thesis

What to Know:

• XRP trades ~70% below its peak, but XRPL validator Vet urges holders to stick to their thesis.
• Five straight red monthly candles mark rare fear, echoing periods before major rallies in 2016–2017.
• Analysts warn XRP breakouts are sudden, often leaving late investors chasing price after moves begin.
• XRPL DeFi growth and infrastructure readiness suggest long-term potential beyond short-term hype.

XRP is currently facing renewed skepticism as it trades nearly 70% below its recent highs. However, some market observers suggest that this period of doubt could be a crucial test for investors. Amidst a rare stretch of five consecutive red monthly candles, reminiscent of patterns seen before significant rallies in the 2016/2017 cycle, the question is whether XRP is poised for a potential comeback.

“XRP Is Dead” Narratives Return

XRP has weathered similar storms of doubt before. During the 2022–2024 period, when XRP lingered around $1, critics often dismissed its potential. However, in 2024, the asset experienced a breakout, surging approximately sevenfold. Now, after touching $3.66 in 2025 and retracing towards the $1.10–$1.30 range, familiar narratives of decline have resurfaced.

Vet, an XRPL validator, has previously cautioned against what he describes as “collective amnesia” among market participants. He notes that investors tend to dismiss XRP during consolidation phases, only to chase the asset once momentum returns. This perspective suggests that the market often tests investors’ conviction before rewarding them.

XRP Breakouts Rarely Send Invitations

Technical analysts have also highlighted the psychological aspect of XRP’s market behavior. Analyst Dark Defender has suggested that XRP’s next major expansion could coincide with a historic drop in Bitcoin dominance, mirroring the capital rotation into altcoins seen in 2017. During that year, XRP surged over 70,000% as Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization declined dramatically.

ChartNerd has consistently pointed out that XRP breakouts tend to occur unexpectedly, leaving little opportunity for investors to reposition. Moon Lambo, an XRP commentator, has emphasized that investors either position themselves before the move or end up chasing the price after it has already begun.

The DeFi Angle the Market May Be Missing

Beyond price charts, some argue that the true potential of XRP lies in its fundamentals. Zach Rector, an XRP YouTuber, recently suggested that the market is not fully pricing in the potential growth driver of DeFi on the XRP Ledger.

The XRPL has featured a native decentralized exchange since 2012, operating at the base layer rather than through external smart contracts. With native lending proposals like XLS-66, expanding tokenization efforts, and increasing institutional activity, proponents believe that XRPL’s DeFi infrastructure is quietly maturing. Ripple, under CEO Brad Garlinghouse, has been strategically acquiring companies across custody, liquidity, treasury software, and prime brokerage. Observers view the launch of RLUSD and the increasing on-chain liquidity as long-term ecosystem plays rather than short-term price catalysts.

Market at Emotional Extremes

Recent on-chain data indicates that XRP holders have experienced one of their largest loss spikes since 2022, suggesting that fearful investors have sold at a loss. This data implies that emotional extremes among holders have led to weak hands exiting the market. However, it does not guarantee an immediate price rebound. Critics also note that comparing XRP’s current situation to historical patterns overlooks the larger market size and different macroeconomic conditions of today.

Whether XRP’s next move will mirror historical patterns remains uncertain. As skepticism grows, many believe that this is precisely when true conviction matters most.

Related: XRP Moved: Signals Liquidity Shift?

Source: Original article