XRP Price Prediction: Can It Hold $1 Amid Bearish Charts?

XRP price prediction has become increasingly bearish as technical indicators and historical signals point toward a potential drop back to the $1 level. Despite a recent short-term rebound, traders should brace for more downside pressure if current patterns continue unfolding.

After XRP surged almost 30% from a recent low near $1.61, market analysts are now warning of a deeper correction. Although the rally gave bulls hope, several bearish signals suggest XRP might struggle to sustain upward momentum.

XRP Faces Bearish Reversal From Inverted Cup-and-Handle

XRP’s chart is currently forming an “inverse cup-and-handle” pattern—a widely recognized bearish setup that suggests the possibility of a 40% decline. This formation typically begins with a rounded top movement (the cup), followed by a brief stabilization known as the handle, all above a common support level or ‘neckline.’

If XRP drops decisively below the neckline at around $2, the next target could be close to $1.24. This projected move aligns with the height of the pattern and is supported by technical indicators such as the 200-three-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently sitting near $1.28.

Renowned trader Peter Brandt echoed these concerns, forecasting a possible 50% decline in XRP’s market capitalization in the near term. The convergence of chart patterns and on-chain signals increases the risk of a significant pullback.

Historical Price Action Signals a Deeper Correction

Historical price fractals further support the bearish outlook. Past market cycles in 2018 and 2021 saw XRP reverse sharply after similar rallies, eventually falling to its aggregated realized price. This metric, which averages the purchase price of circulating tokens, currently sits near $1—a psychological threshold that has acted as a magnet during previous market resets.

When prices hover significantly above the realized price, it encourages holders to secure profits, increasing the chances of a pullback. As XRP’s recent high approached $3.20 earlier this year, many traders began eyeing lower levels, especially as macroeconomic factors turned bearish.

Moreover, the current realized price aligns closely with the 200-week EMA, which is hovering near $0.81. This long-term moving average could act as a major support in a full-blown bear market, reinforcing the downside risk.

Majority of Holders in Profit Spells Trouble

Another warning sign lies in the number of XRP addresses currently holding profitable positions. More than 80% of wallets are in the green, which historically precedes bouts of aggressive profit-taking. This pattern has often led to major corrections, as smart money exits near local highs.

According to Cointelegraph’s analysis, similar profit-heavy scenarios have occurred near market tops. If historical trends follow through, XRP could be on the verge of another significant leg down.

Declining Sentiment for New All-Time Highs

Adding to growing pessimism, data from Polymarket reveals that the odds of XRP reaching a new all-time high above $3.55 before 2026 have fallen to only 35%. This marks a steep drop from 60% just a month prior, indicating that investor confidence is waning quickly as market conditions worsen.

The broader crypto market also experienced a slowdown throughout April, driven in part by increasing global tensions and the return of protectionist trade measures under U.S. leadership. This shift in macro sentiment has suppressed risk appetite, indirectly affecting momentum in altcoins like XRP.

While no technical or on-chain signal perfectly predicts price direction, the current collection of bearish charts, historical parallels, and deteriorating investor sentiment strongly suggest that XRP might revisit the $1 mark in the coming weeks.

XRP traders are advised to monitor these levels closely and use caution when positioning, as volatility remains high and downside risks continue to grow.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.