XRP price has slipped below the 2022 volume point of control, suggesting a massive increase in selling pressure.
A further retracement could be on the cards despite on-chain metrics’ bullishness.
A daily candlestick close below $0.601 will invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple.
XRP price is in a pickle after the recent flash crash. The pullback pushed the remittance token below a stable support level, indicating that a recovery will not be easy. Moreover, the uncertain outlook for the big crypto does not help Ripple’s situation.
XRP price at an inflection point
XRP price has been on a steady uptrend since January 22 and showed no signs of slowing down until April 6. Due to the sudden flash crash in Bitcoin price, altcoins – including Ripple – experienced a similar fate.
As a result, the XRP price dropped roughly 10% on April 6 and dug below the 2022 volume point of control at $0.776. The bearish outlook was that the remittance token produced a daily candlestick close below it.
While a quick recovery is favorable to the bulls, it is unsure if it will happen. If the buyers band together and propel the price higher, then investors can expect the XRP price to make a run toward the range high at $0.916. In a big bullish scenario, the uptrend could even extend to the $1 psychological level.
However, due to the slim volume profile below the point of control, the chances of further descent seem likely. Therefore, sidelined buyers should keep a close eye on the range extending from $0.626 to $0.688, which can be termed a buy zone.
Investors can expect a resurgence of buying pressure after a dip into this area. The resulting bull rally could see XRP price flip the range high at $0.916 and make its way toward September 4, 2021 swing high at $1.389. This run-up would constitute a 102% upswing and is likely where the upside is capped for XRP price.
While market profile is looking doubtful for XRP price, investors need to watch for a recovery above the 2022 volume point of control at $0.776. Failure to do so could result in a further crash to the $0.601 support floor.
Further adding credence to this outlook is the recent flip of the Awesome Oscillator above the zero line. This development indicates that momentum is back in the market. The last few times this setup was seen XRP price rallied 450% and 60%, hinting at the big potential the recent move above the zero-line has.
XRP/USDT 3-day chart
Perhaps the most interesting on-chain metric for XRP price is the behavior of whales. Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1,000,000 XRP tokens have been in accumulation mode since July 2020.
So far, the first category of wallets has increased from 5.2% to 8.2%, while the other group of holders has increased from 7% to 10%. This trend indicates that investors are expecting massive returns from XRP and are optimistic about the future.
XRP supply distribution by balance of addresses
A daily candlestick close below $0.601 will create a lower low from a high time frame perspective and invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple. In this situation, market participants can expect the XRP price to crash by 38% and retest the $0.373 support level.