Bitcoin continues to capture global attention, and a prominent early critic, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, has now admitted he misjudged not just the cryptocurrency but also the regulatory approach surrounding it. In 2018, Rogoff famously predicted that bitcoin was more likely to plummet to $100 than rise to six figures. Fast forward to 2025, and the digital currency has defied that forecast spectacularly, soaring past $113,000.

Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, reflected on his prediction earlier this week. Speaking via a post on X, he stated that his forecast had rested on the notion that regulators would swiftly act to contain the risks associated with cryptocurrencies. “I was far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” he wrote.

Rogoff’s Missed Prediction and the Rise of Bitcoin

In March 2018, when bitcoin was trading below $10,000, Rogoff publicly declared that the token had a far higher chance of dropping to $100 than hitting $100,000. This prediction appeared in an interview with CNBC, archived here.

However, in a turn of events that few economists could have fully anticipated, bitcoin not only rebounded but ultimately broke past the $100,000 barrier in 2024, marking a milestone for digital assets and the investors backing them. Now trading around $113,000, bitcoin has climbed more than tenfold since Rogoff’s grim forecast.

The Role of Regulation—or Lack Thereof

Rogoff emphasized that his original position was based on the assumption that governments, especially in the United States, would take decisive steps to limit cryptocurrency’s appeal for illicit transactions and tax evasion. Instead, he observed a surprising degree of leniency.

“This demand puts a floor on its price,” Rogoff noted, referencing bitcoin’s utility within the massive global shadow economy, estimated at $20 trillion. In this context, bitcoin’s resilience wasn’t solely driven by investor sentiment but also by its integration into high-volume, off-the-books economic activity.

He continues to elaborate on this perspective in his new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, where he explores the intersection of cryptocurrency, monetary policy, and regulation. The premise is that without tighter oversight, digital assets will continue cementing their position in both legal and illegal market segments across borders.

Concerns About Conflicts of Interest

In a particularly pointed observation, Rogoff criticized what he perceives as clear regulatory conflicts of interest. He alleged that various regulators themselves might have financial stakes in cryptocurrencies, undermining their objectivity.

“There’s a blatant conflict of interest,” he stated, “with regulators holding hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence.” This comment has sparked renewed debates about transparency, accountability, and ethics within global financial regulatory bodies.

Despite being proven wrong on bitcoin’s trajectory, Rogoff’s continued commentary provides valuable context on the intersection of crypto and policy. His reflections serve as a reminder that while market prices tell one story, the underlying frameworks—or lack thereof—play an equally pivotal role in shaping the future of digital finance.

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Bitcoin’s unexpected surge past $100,000 challenges earlier regulatory assumptions.