What to Know:
- Bitcoin faces pressure, potentially declining to $100,000 amid broader market capital outflows.
- Altcoins experience heavy selling, but oversold conditions suggest a possible relief rally depending on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance.
- Derivatives markets indicate a bias for put options on Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling expectations for increased price volatility.
Bitcoin is currently trading under pressure, facing its first October loss since 2018, which has traders on edge. Technical charts suggest a growing risk of a deeper decline, potentially testing levels at or below $100,000, while options market data reveals a consistent preference for put options. The broader cryptocurrency market is also experiencing capital outflows, as evidenced by the decline in futures open interest.
The focus remains on Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average, around $107,000, a key level to watch. Continued testing of this support since late October raises concerns about potential near-term market weakness. A pessimistic scenario could unfold if stock markets also face pressure while the dollar strengthens; however, some analysts note a sequence of higher lows at the peaks of the sell-off, offering a glimmer of optimism.
Analyzing derivatives positioning, Bitcoin and Ethereum futures open interest remained largely unchanged recently, while altcoins like XRP and DOGE saw declines, suggesting capital is leaving the broader altcoin market. Volmex’s volatility indexes for Bitcoin and Ether are rising again, indicating renewed expectations for price volatility. On Deribit, both Bitcoin and Ethereum options show a bias for put options in the short and near term, further indicating a cautious outlook.
Altcoins experienced a challenging week, with many facing heavy selling pressure, however, the average relative strength index indicates oversold conditions, which could lead to a relief rally. Much of this potential rally depends on Bitcoin and Ethereum, as they challenge key support levels. A break below these levels could trigger a ripple effect across the altcoin market due to liquidity concerns and potential derivatives liquidations.
The cryptocurrency market faces some headwinds, but oversold conditions in the altcoin market suggest a potential for recovery if Bitcoin can regain momentum. Investors should monitor key support levels and derivatives market signals to navigate potential volatility.
Source: Original article
