XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge Amid Regulatory Momentum

The growing anticipation of an XRP ETF approval is capturing major attention across crypto and financial circles. As regulatory clarity slowly unfolds in 2025, excitement surrounding a potential XRP spot ETF has surged, with notable predictions pointing to heightened odds of it becoming reality before year-end.

Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has recently adjusted its forecast, now placing the likelihood of an XRP ETF securing approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by December 2025 at 79%. This marks a significant jump from 65% just weeks ago, underlining market participants’ strengthening conviction in the possibility of an XRP ETF entering mainstream financial platforms.

Behind this renewed optimism is a series of favorable developments. Chief among them is the SEC’s decision in March 2025 to officially dismiss its long-standing legal case against Ripple Labs. This move effectively removed a major obstacle that had haunted XRP for years, opening the door to more serious regulatory consideration of derivative products tied to the token.

Although no spot XRP ETF has yet been approved, the SEC has given the green light to multiple futures-based XRP ETFs this year. Asset manager ProShares has led the charge with three new ETFs — the Ultra XRP ETF, the Short XRP ETF, and the Ultra Short XRP ETF — each offering varied leverage exposure. Initial launch plans for April 30 were delayed, with a new tentative launch date set for May 14, pending final SEC confirmation.

While futures ETFs provide an avenue for traders to speculate on price movements, they fall short of granting actual XRP ownership. Investors and analysts alike continue to champion a spot ETF, which would directly hold XRP tokens. Such a move could offer broader accessibility to XRP, especially for institutions and retirement accounts typically limited to regulated investment vehicles.

In the race to bring a spot XRP ETF to market, several leading asset managers have stepped forward with formal applications. These include names like Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, and WisdomTree. Last month, the SEC extended its review period on Franklin Templeton’s application, pushing the decision date to June 17. However, such procedural moves are viewed as routine and don’t necessarily signal approval delays.

The potential market impact of an XRP ETF has also been quantified. Standard Chartered estimates that a U.S.-based spot XRP ETF could attract up to $8.3 billion in inflows within its first year. This projection is based on NAV patterns observed in other approved ETFs, with Ethereum ETFs averaging 3% of total market cap and Bitcoin ETFs reaching just under 6%. Applying similar ratios to XRP’s current valuation implies an influx between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion.

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that this estimate offers a “reasonable target range” when considering XRP’s growing prominence and investor interest in altcoin ETFs. However, more conservative voices, such as analysts from Bitfinex, suggest that XRP ETFs might draw smaller inflows in comparison to Bitcoin products, due to varying investor appetites and familiarity.

As of now, XRP is trading around $2.20, with a daily volume of $2.14 billion. Despite some short-term price dips, broader investor focus remains locked on regulatory milestones. The SEC’s next closed-door meeting is scheduled for May 8, and speculation is rising that updates concerning Ripple or pending XRP ETF filings could emerge.

The broader trend in 2025 points to increasing support for altcoin ETFs amid a maturing digital asset regulatory landscape in the U.S. While the final decision on a spot XRP ETF remains pending, both market sentiment and institutional movement suggest growing momentum toward approval.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused