XRP ETF Faces 98% SEC Approval Odds Amid Optimism

The recent surge in optimism surrounding cryptocurrency spot ETFs has shone a spotlight on XRP, with Bloomberg analysts pointing toward a strikingly high likelihood of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to insights from Bloomberg Intelligence experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the chances of the SEC greenlighting applications for various spot crypto ETFs, including several for XRP ETFs, are now over 90%.

The main focus keyword, XRP ETF, continues to dominate both investor discussions and regulatory analysis. Bloomberg’s latest assessment reflects a sharp uptick in confidence among market participants, driven by recent activities from the SEC showing willingness to engage with ETF issuers. Seyffart stated in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that “We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” underscoring the progress being made.

According to the latest evaluations, spot ETFs for multiple digital assets, including XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA), sit at or above an estimated 90% approval rate. This sharp increase in predicted success can be attributed to growing SEC engagement and a consistent exchange of updated applications by ETF issuers. This includes numerous 19b-4 filing acknowledgments and updated S-1 form amendments, signifying a regulatory environment that is edging closer to acceptance.

Experts interpret this mounting back-and-forth as a sign that the SEC is beginning to collaborate more constructively with financial firms, a departure from its otherwise conservative stance in previous years. Balancing regulatory caution with innovation, the agency now appears to be signaling a readiness to approve a variety of crypto-related financial products, including those focused on XRP.

While XRP ETFs are showing particularly strong odds, not all assets share the same fortune. SUI, a crypto asset with a pending ETF application filed exclusively by Canary, is currently deemed less likely to pass regulatory muster. Analysts give it only a 60% chance of approval, primarily due to a lack of regulated futures and overall regulatory ambiguity surrounding the token.

Investor sentiment also mirrors this growing optimism. On Polymarket, a popular prediction market, bettors assign a 98% probability to the approval of an XRP spot ETF by the end of the year. Similarly, a 91% likelihood is forecasted for a Solana ETF receiving regulatory approval, while Dogecoin trails slightly behind at 71%, still maintaining strong approval confidence.

This monumental shift indicates that XRP, long considered one of the more controversial tokens due to past legal scuffles involving Ripple Labs and the SEC, has successfully navigated through much of the regulatory turbulence. Regaining momentum, the XRP ETF narrative now stands poised to usher in a new chapter of mainstream crypto investment opportunities.

The implications for the crypto market are wide-reaching. An approved XRP ETF would likely catalyze greater institutional adoption, improve market liquidity, and drive increased transparency. Moreover, approval from the SEC would signal growing regulatory maturity, allowing investors to access digital assets under familiar, legalized frameworks.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

As the industry watches and waits, one thing is clear: the road to regulated crypto ETFs, particularly for XRP, appears more promising than ever before.