The XRP price is currently navigating a defining moment, hovering just above the key psychological support level of $2. As investors monitor the market’s next move, technical patterns and strategic insights are painting an intriguing picture of potential upside for Ripple’s native token.
At $2.18, XRP is trading within a narrow band between $2.13 and $2.17, suggesting indecision among traders but also opening the door to significant potential gains. Despite recent setbacks in market sentiment and derivative trading, analysts suggest a bullish breakout may be on the horizon if support holds steady.
Elliott Wave Signals $12 Rally Potential
Market analyst EWCycles has identified a promising Elliott Wave setup, with XRP potentially entering a powerful third wave—one that could drive the price up to $12 during the 2025–2026 period. This projection reflects nearly a 2,900% surge from XRP’s recent low, a prospect that builds on the token’s long-term bullish structure.
EWCycles highlights that XRP must maintain a pattern of higher highs and higher lows within a rising channel. If the $2 support persists, this structure could trigger a significant uptrend. A bullish wedge on the four-hour chart further supports this outlook. A breakout beyond $2.36 may result in a 7% climb to $2.59. However, should XRP dip below $2.13, the price could retreat toward $1.96.
Whale Movements Indicate Strategic Accumulation
On-chain data suggests that large XRP holders are accumulating aggressively. In the past month, wallets containing between 10 million and 100 million XRP tokens have collectively acquired 440 million coins. This activity reflects growing institutional confidence despite short-term market volatility.
According to analysts, such accumulation typically indicates expectations of a future rally. However, it’s also been noted that transactions above $100,000 and $1 million have decreased recently. Alongside this, derivative market data revealed $4.89 million in long position liquidations within a single day, pointing to thinning short-term investor enthusiasm.
Technical Indicators Point Toward Recovery
XRP remains around 15% below the significant resistance of $2.50, which marks the midpoint of its correction from a $3.40 high. Yet technical signals suggest upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above 54, and green histogram bars on the MACD chart indicate building bullish pressure.
Additionally, a “Reverse Dragon” formation has been identified, supporting a possible rise toward the $3 mark in the near term. Analysts emphasize the key levels of $2.35 to $2.50 as pivotal—any breakout above these could tilt momentum sharply upward.
Legal Updates May Provide the Final Push
A significant driver behind XRP’s price trajectory is the legal conflict between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC has extended its appeal deadline to June 15, 2025, and just two days later, a decision is expected on the highly anticipated Franklin Templeton XRP ETF application.
Legal experts suggest that the timing may be deliberate, potentially signaling a resolution point. If the lawsuit ends favorably or if the ETF gains approval, it could act as a considerable catalyst, removing regulatory uncertainty and inviting strong investor participation.
Some industry forecasts suggest that a legal win or regulatory clarity could lead to a potential 3x price rally, unlocking XRP’s growth potential and restoring confidence in Ripple’s long-term vision.
Volatility Continues to Define Short-Term Market Conditions
While the long-term scenario remains optimistic, XRP’s near-term trajectory is less clear. The token has struggled to firmly break above $2.25, and bearish divergence continues to challenge upward movements. If the price dips below $2.15, traders could see the next line of defense at $2.00 or as low as $1.95.
Recent data reveal that while derivatives volume grew by 24%, open interest remained steady—hinting at caution among market participants as they await clarity from both the SEC decision and price signals.
What’s Next for XRP?
With Ripple standing at the intersection of technical potential and legal resolution, the next few weeks could shape the trajectory of XRP for the foreseeable future. Should regulatory outcomes turn favorable and technical structures hold, XRP may finally gather the momentum it needs to break into a new growth phase.
Until more definitive developments unfold, the $2 level will likely remain the critical fulcrum—marking either the launchpad for a substantial surge or the threshold for another consolidation phase.
