XRP Price Prediction: Bearish Charts Hint at $1 Retest

XRP price prediction trends are turning increasingly bearish as both technical indicators and on-chain data suggest the token may be poised for a significant retracement. Despite a recent 30% recovery from a four-month low, XRP’s rally could be short-lived if historical signals and chart patterns play out as expected.

Currently trading around $2, XRP has demonstrated signs of forming a classic inverse cup-and-handle pattern — a technical structure often linked to market reversals and sharp downturns.

XRP’s Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern Signals 40% Decline

The bearish inverse cup-and-handle formation develops when the price rounds off into a downward curve resembling a ‘cup,’ followed by a smaller upward correction forming the ‘handle.’ This pattern typically concludes with a breakdown below a key support level, often triggering a fall equivalent to the pattern’s height.

As of mid-April, XRP appears to be entering the final configuration of the handle section, hovering just above the neckline support at $2. A conclusive breakdown from this point could drag the price down toward $1.24 — a plunge of nearly 40%.

This projection aligns closely with XRP’s 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the three-day chart, currently near $1.28, further reinforcing the pattern’s credibility.

Veteran analyst Peter Brandt also echoes a bearish outlook, suggesting XRP’s market cap could be cut in half within the coming weeks.

Historical Fractals Support Bearish XRP Trend

The current market movement seems to mirror XRP’s historical price behavior. Significant 2025 gains have been followed by steep pullbacks in previous cycles, and the token’s realized price has consistently served as a critical benchmark for these corrections.

The realized price reflects the average cost basis of all XRP tokens in circulation. When the market price substantially exceeds this level, it typically indicates holders are in profit — a scenario often followed by rounds of profit-taking and selloffs. At present, with the realized price lingering near $1, XRP may retrace over 50% to revisit this psychological level.

Interestingly, this $1 target lies close to XRP’s 200-week EMA, currently around $0.81 — a convergence that enhances downside risk, as previously noted in Cointelegraph’s March analysis.

Adding fuel to the bearish sentiment, more than 80% of XRP wallet addresses show net gains. Historically, such overextended profit levels have preceded sharp market corrections. Rising fear of potential losses can lead to intensified selling pressure and further declines in price.

Further insight on this trend can be found via Cointelegraph’s related coverage: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish — Here is why.

Chances of New All-Time Highs Dwindle

According to recent data from Polymarket, market sentiment around XRP setting new records has notably diminished. As of April 19, the chances of XRP surpassing its previous all-time high of $3.55 before 2026 dropped to 35%, down 25 percentage points from earlier optimism.

This weakening belief coincides with a broader downturn in crypto market momentum, partially attributed to global economic instability and mounting trade tensions under renewed U.S. tariff policies.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.