XRP continues to showcase strength even as political drama unfolds at the U.S. Federal Reserve, reinforcing Ripple’s distance from traditional financial institutions. While prediction markets speculate on President Trump’s potential attempts to dismiss Federal Reserve officials, investors in XRP appear unfazed, focusing instead on the cryptocurrency’s decentralized foundation.

Polymarket Signals Doubt Over Trump’s Influence on the Fed

Despite growing political tension, prediction platform Polymarket suggests only a slim 10% probability that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be ousted in 2025. This implies that market participants largely believe the central bank’s independence will hold until Powell’s current term ends in May 2026.

Polymarket data reflects minimal expectations for Powell’s early dismissal.

Even Trump’s newest maneuver targeting Fed Governor Lisa Cook hasn’t shifted those odds significantly. In a post shared via his Truth Social account, Trump claims Cook should be dismissed due to alleged mortgage fraud—a charge stemming from events before her central bank tenure.

Resistance From Cook and Implications for Central Bank Integrity

Lisa Cook has pushed back against Trump’s accusations, stating that “for cause” dismissals must relate directly to misconduct carried out during her time in office. Her rebuttal has helped stabilize expectations around her tenure. According to Polymarket, there’s only a 27% chance she’ll be removed by the end of 2025, indicating that while some tension is priced in, a majority of the market believes she’ll remain in place.

Cook’s exit odds are elevated but still well below 50%, reflecting political uncertainty.

Cook’s case marks an unprecedented moment—the first instance of a sitting Fed governor facing an explicit presidential attempt at removal. The legal framework for any such action remains murky, raising further concerns about central bank independence.

Historical Context and Erosion of Fed Independence

History reminds us that political interference with the Federal Reserve isn’t new. As noted in a 2013 Cato paper by Thomas F. Cargill and Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr., both Republican and Democratic administrations have pressured the Fed. Past examples include President Truman’s push to remove Chairman Thomas McCabe in 1951 and President Nixon’s influence over Arthur Burns in the early 1970s—events that arguably contributed to runaway inflation.

These episodes underscore a key point often raised within crypto circles: central banks are not immune to political influence. This reality emphasizes why cryptocurrencies like XRP and bitcoin remain vital alternatives for those seeking financial systems insulated from governmental control.

What This Means for Bitcoin and Altcoins Like XRP

If Trump were to successfully dismiss Powell, it could signal a shift toward looser monetary policy. Markets might initially interpret this as a green light for risk assets, including bitcoin and XRP, due to anticipated rate cuts and a weaker dollar. Such a scenario would strengthen the core digital asset narrative—that centralized monetary systems are fragile and potentially compromised.

Markets assign a modest probability to Trump’s success in firing Cook.

XRP, which operates on a decentralized ledger and isn’t controlled by any single entity, benefits from this distinction. Investors and institutions may increasingly view Ripple’s ecosystem as a stable hedge against governance uncertainty at central banks.

Market Reactions and Crypto’s Response

Market response to Trump’s actions has been subdued within the crypto sector. While political headlines swirled, bitcoin rose only 0.3% after the news broke. Still, it remained down 2.6% as per CoinDesk market data.

The broader CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks performance of leading crypto assets like XRP, was also declining, down 5.3% midway through the Hong Kong trading session. This tepid response suggests market participants view current events as noise unless substantive policy changes follow.

Though XRP wasn’t the direct subject of these political moves, the situation magnifies its value proposition—offering a decentralized financial infrastructure immune to central bank reshuffling or presidential interference.