XRP Signals Decoupling from Bitcoin

What to Know:

• Canary Capital CEO suggests XRP may buck Bitcoin’s downtrend due to real-world utility.
• He forecasts further Bitcoin decline, while XRP and similar assets could see modest growth.
• Contrarian view given altcoins typically amplify Bitcoin’s moves, both up and down.

A prominent crypto fund CEO is making waves with his contrarian market outlook. While many analysts tie the fate of altcoins to Bitcoin’s price action, Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg believes select cryptocurrencies like XRP could decouple and chart their own course. His argument centers on the shift towards real-world applications and tokenization, potentially diminishing Bitcoin’s dominance over the broader market.

Bitcoin’s Bearish Outlook

McClurg anticipates further downside for Bitcoin, suggesting it already peaked in October 2025. He projects a 20-30% decline over the next six to nine months, potentially driving the price down to the $65,000-$77,000 range. This bearish sentiment stems from his belief that the market has entered a corrective phase, making new all-time highs unlikely in the near term. Such a call is notable given the prevailing bullish sentiment around Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving cycle.

The Decoupling Thesis

The core of McClurg’s argument lies in the decoupling of certain crypto assets from Bitcoin’s price movements. He contends that the market’s focus is shifting from speculative trading to building tangible applications, particularly in real-world asset tokenization and stablecoins. This shift, he believes, will allow projects with strong fundamentals and real-world use cases to diverge from Bitcoin’s trajectory. This is a structural argument about the evolving market structure.

XRP Ledger as a Potential Outperformer

McClurg specifically highlights the XRP Ledger as a potential outperformer in this new paradigm. He points to its focus on real-world asset tokenization as a key driver for decoupling from Bitcoin’s downtrend. Hedera is also mentioned as another network with similar potential, driven by enterprise-focused use cases. The implication is that these networks are building independent value propositions that are less reliant on Bitcoin’s speculative cycles.

Tempered Expectations

Despite the positive outlook for XRP and similar assets, McClurg tempers expectations for explosive gains. He anticipates low double-digit price growth for a select group of cryptocurrencies that operate outside Bitcoin’s immediate influence. This suggests a more measured, fundamental-driven appreciation rather than a speculative frenzy. It’s a call for realistic expectations in a market known for its volatility.

Historical Context and Alternative Views

It’s important to acknowledge the historical context. Altcoins have often amplified Bitcoin’s price swings, both to the upside and downside. During past Bitcoin corrections, XRP has experienced even sharper declines. Conversely, when Bitcoin remains stable or appreciates, XRP has often outperformed. This historical pattern suggests that a significant Bitcoin decline could still negatively impact XRP, despite its real-world utility. Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and Citi remain bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum for the coming year.

In conclusion, while McClurg’s decoupling thesis offers a compelling narrative for XRP’s potential, it’s essential to consider historical market behavior and alternative viewpoints. The interplay between Bitcoin’s price action and XRP’s real-world adoption will likely determine its future trajectory. Institutional investors will need to weigh these factors carefully as they navigate the evolving crypto landscape.

Related: XRP Signals Rally: Bollinger Bands Point Up

Source: Original article