XRP Volatility Hits Lows Not Seen Since 2016 Election

This editorial provides technical insights into XRP’s market trend. Commentary by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

The focus keyword XRP volatility sets the stage for a drastic shift in market activity, as the cryptocurrency’s price movements have quieted to a level not observed since the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Despite newly introduced instruments and regulatory progress, XRP’s price action remains subdued.

Data from TradingView indicates that XRP’s 30-day annualized realized volatility has declined to 44%, setting a new low not seen since November 2016. This is a dramatic contraction when compared to earlier periods this year, which witnessed spikes above 150%—notably in December and March.

The drop in XRP volatility is occurring even as notable milestones unfold. The launch of XRP futures on CME, multiple spot XRP ETF filings, and a crypto-friendly political climate under the current U.S. administration have all positioned XRP for potential growth. Yet the price has remained largely range-bound in recent months.

Between March and June, XRP has fluctuated mostly between $2.00 and $2.60, with scarce deviations below the lower limit. This stagnant movement mimics broader market behavior, such as bitcoin—whose trading has hovered between $100,000 and $110,000 for nearly 50 days straight.

What Could Happen Next?

Historical patterns in XRP volatility reveal its mean-reverting nature. In market terms, this suggests volatility eventually reverts to its long-term average. Typically, a sharp rise in volatility is followed by stagnation, while prolonged declines often signal strong trend shifts ahead. The current phase indicates the market is bracing for a meaningful movement, though its timing remains uncertain.

Still, today’s volatility reading—44%—is above the critical 15%–30% threshold that has historically marked true bottoms in volatility. For context, those lower levels have frequently preceded major price activity since 2014. This suggests the current conditions do not yet meet the standard to trigger a wide-reaching price move but do hint that the market could be nearing a pivot point.

XRP functions as a bridge currency in Ripple’s ecosystem, designed to optimize cross-border transactions. As financial institutions progressively integrate blockchain technologies, Ripple and by extension XRP, stand to benefit substantially. The expanding interest in institutional products like spot ETFs and futures trading further legitimizes XRP’s market positioning.

However, investor anticipation remains tempered due to the stagnant price chart. Despite regulatory optimism and infrastructure development for the ecosystem, markets are holding their breath, waiting for a decisive breakout or further consolidation.

The bigger picture remains mixed. While current XRP volatility levels are the lowest in years, they’re not quite at the floor that typically precedes surging movement. Traders may wish to adopt a cautious outlook in the short term, while keeping a close eye on macro shifts that can thaw this freeze in volatility.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

Also read: NY Judge Slaps Down SEC, Ripple’s Second Request for an Indicative Ruling on Proposed $50M Settlement