XRP ETF Approval Could Spark Massive XRP Surge

XRP ETF approval may soon become a reality, and if it does, it could trigger an unprecedented surge in demand and valuation for Ripple’s native token. As institutional eyes shift toward XRP, analysts believe the impact could be comparable to the success story of Bitcoin ETFs.

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, known for their detailed ETF market insights, recently raised the probability of a U.S.-approved XRP ETF to an impressive 95%. This major update has escalated trader enthusiasm, as the regulatory green light could dramatically alter XRP’s trajectory.

XRP could mirror Bitcoin ETF success if it captures even a portion of the capital inflows seen by Bitcoin ETF products since January 2024. According to XRP ETF forecasts, gathering 35% of the capital that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted would be a game-changer. Specifically, that percentage translates to around $16.33 billion in net inflows, based on Bitcoin’s $46.66 billion ETF inflow figure.

What makes this even more compelling is the principle of capital multipliers. Rather than price increasing at a one-to-one ratio with capital inflow, markets often apply multipliers to gauge the potential rise in valuation. While some sources have quoted extreme multipliers, such as 674x in rare historical cases, a conservative multiplier of 100x offers a more grounded perspective without inducing hype.

Applying the 100x multiplier to a hypothetical $16.331 billion inflow, XRP’s market cap would instantly leap by $1.633 trillion. Considering its current market valuation of $125.87 billion and a price of $2.13, this added inflow points to a future market cap of $1.759 trillion. With the existing 58.93 billion circulating XRP tokens, simple math projects a per-coin value of roughly $29.89, essentially hitting the $30 mark.

Momentum behind XRP ETFs continues to build. Bloomberg’s analysts emphasized that the U.S. SEC is actively engaging with applicants, improving the likelihood of eventual approval. According to a recent update by James Seyffart, agency communication patterns suggest that formal approval is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’.

Investor sentiment supports this view. Prediction markets like Polymarket now reflect an 88% chance that a spot XRP ETF will secure approval by 2025. That’s a strong vote of confidence from a highly liquid forecasting platform.

Institutional players are also making their moves. In 2025, firms such as Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and 21Shares have filed applications with the SEC. Franklin Templeton’s March filing has garnered notable attention, though the agency has delayed its decision as part of routine procedure. Still, the SEC has already opened a public consultation window, letting investors offer feedback up until the end of July.

Progress outside the U.S. offers a glimpse into the future. Earlier this week, Canada launched three fully regulated XRP ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This milestone reinforces not only global demand for XRP financial products but also the feasibility of their implementation in regulated environments.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

If U.S. decision-makers take cues from their northern neighbors and approve spot XRP ETFs, the broader implications for Ripple and its ecosystem would be history-making. Even assuming XRP captures only a slice of the interest currently surrounding Bitcoin ETFs, the growth potential could redefine XRP’s standing in the crypto market.