XRP is under pressure as recent activity in prediction markets points to a potential continued downturn for the Ripple-associated cryptocurrency. Market sentiment on platforms like Polymarket suggests that many traders expect XRP to trade at a lower value by the end of May, reflecting growing bearishness amid a broader crypto market slide.
According to data from Polymarket, there is currently a 59% probability that XRP will close below $2.19 on May 31. This reflects widespread skepticism among digital asset speculators. An additional prediction market offers more granular analysis, with the most favored wager predicting an 82% likelihood that XRP will drop as low as $2.00 this month. The next most popular bet forecasts a 65% chance of XRP sinking further to $1.90. These outlooks have emerged as XRP has already declined by nearly 37% from its January peak of $3.31 to a recent low of $2.10.
This downturn coincides with a broader 20% slide in global cryptocurrency markets, effectively erasing $800 billion in value and reigniting conversations about another so-called “crypto winter.” Earlier in April, leading exchange Coinbase highlighted troubling macro trends, suggesting the onset of another prolonged bearish cycle in the crypto space.
Traditional markets haven’t been spared either. High-risk equities have also retreated amidst economic uncertainty. For instance, the S&P 500 has shed approximately 6.6% since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, adding more fuel to investor fears. Ripple and other crypto projects remain vulnerable to geopolitical and economic developments, particularly as trade tensions rise. Despite reassurances from policymakers, some analysts remain concerned that aggressive trade policies may trigger a full-blown recession.
Still, not all sentiment surrounding XRP is negative. On Polymarket, another set of bets suggests optimism over the potential approval of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bettors estimate a 73% chance that XRP-related ETFs could receive the green light in 2025, a development that might unlock as much as $8 billion in trading volume should it materialize.
The fate of XRP largely mirrors the outlook for Ripple itself. Ripple’s team, particularly through its RippleX division, manages XRPL (XRP Ledger), which has been open-source since 2015. The company utilizes XRP as a tool for enabling fast, low-cost international payments. As of the end of Q1 2025, Ripple held nearly 4.6 billion XRP directly, with an additional 37.1 billion stored in on-ledger escrow. Combined, this represents roughly 41% of XRP’s total supply — a holding valued at about $88 billion based on current market conditions.
Ripple has also been celebrating some legal and strategic victories. Most notably, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently announced it would drop its lawsuit against Ripple. Further boosting its corporate roadmap, Ripple disclosed plans to acquire institutional prime broker Hidden Road in a deal valued at $1.25 billion. These moves could strengthen Ripple’s capabilities in the institutional market.
On the side of predictive platforms, Kalshi lists a 57% chance that XRP will end 2025 as the top-performing cryptocurrency — a figure that underscores the mixed perspectives circulating in the markets. Despite this optimism, short-term projections remain cautious, with uncertainty hanging over the sector.
Recent data illustrates the market’s current fragility. Bitcoin slid 0.2% in the past day, now trading at $94,002. Ethereum followed suit, dipping by 1% to reach $1,787. These numbers reflect ongoing volatility affecting nearly every corner of the digital economy.
In summary, while XRP is gaining attention due to potential ETF approvals and Ripple’s strategic advancements, near-term forecasts from major betting platforms lean bearish. This highlights a divide between short-term caution and long-term confidence among traders and industry stakeholders.
A bet on the prediction market gives XRP a 59% chance that it will trade below $2.19 at the end of the month.
That prediction market’s most popular bet gives XRP an 82% chance of dropping to $2.00.
Coinbase warn that it’s seeing the early signs of a crypto winter.
Trade war unleashed by Trump has reconfirmed how vulnerable crypto is.
Polymarket punters expect SEC to approve spot XRP ETFs soon.
Ripple’s Q1 XRP Markets Report confirms it held approximately 41% of total XRP supply.
SEC has dropped its case against the company.
Ripple recently announced plans to acquire prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25B.
A bet on prediction market Kalshi gives XRP a 57% chance of being top crypto in 2025.
