XRP Price Outlook: Can Ripple Reach $4 This Year?

XRP price has surged in 2025, attracting attention amid broader cryptocurrency recovery. With Ripple resolving its legal issues and possible ETF approval looming, XRP investors are hopeful for continued momentum through the end of the year.

XRP, the native token of Ripple Labs, has climbed over 40% this year, outperforming many leading cryptocurrencies. After breaching the $3 mark multiple times—a level not seen since January 2018—the road to $4 represents around a 22% increase from its current trading value of $3.28 as of mid-August. While progress has been notable, achieving this next milestone may take more than optimism alone.

Ripple Ends Longstanding SEC Battle

One of XRP’s biggest overhangs was its nearly five-year legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC had claimed Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security, which led many top crypto exchanges to delist the token in 2020. This made acquiring XRP significantly harder for investors.

That legal cloud finally dissipated when Ripple and the SEC agreed to dismiss all pending appeals. With a New York federal judge’s 2023 ruling now finalized, Ripple will pay $125 million—a significantly smaller penalty compared to the $2 billion sought by regulators.

This legal conclusion brings a huge sigh of relief for Ripple as it no longer has to allocate resources to litigation. The market initially welcomed the news, with XRP jumping more than 10% in a single day. However, the expected resolution had already been priced in to a degree, especially following the election of a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration, so future impact may be more muted.

XRP ETFs Could Drive Institutional Interest

A more prominent factor that could influence XRP’s climb to $4 is the potential approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Following prior approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, several finance firms—such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares—have submitted applications for XRP-backed ETFs.

The SEC is currently reviewing these proposals, with key decision dates set between October 18 and October 25. The prediction market Polymarket pegs the odds of approval at 84%, hinting at strong investor confidence in regulatory approval.

Institutional accessibility could be a game-changer. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have already seen significant inflows—$54 billion and $10 billion respectively—demonstrating the market-shaping power of regulated investment vehicles. If approved, XRP ETFs could provide a similar boost by enabling hedge funds, banks, and other large players to gain exposure in a regulated manner.

Still, even if approved, ETF launches don’t always spark immediate rallies. Ethereum saw a relatively slow price reaction after its ETF debut. That, combined with the chance that the SEC might decline the proposals, means XRP investors should temper expectations around October news.

Why Reaching $4 May Still Be a Reach

Despite its strong performance and functional utility in cross-border payments, XRP still faces headwinds. A key issue is adoption: while Ripple’s network facilitates international payments efficiently, many financial institutions choose to utilize Ripple’s service without using the XRP token. This weakens XRP’s utility as a core investment asset.

To move beyond its current valuation, Ripple must boost institutional usage of XRP itself—not just its payment rails. That kind of strategic integration takes time, ecosystems, and coordination with global banking systems.

There’s also the wider crypto market dynamic to consider. Competitors like Ethereum have lately taken center stage in terms of returns and innovation. In July, ETH outpaced XRP in performance, drawing investor attention elsewhere. Much of the positive sentiment surrounding Ripple may have already been reflected in XRP’s current price, reducing the potential impact of upcoming developments.

Related: XRP Price: $12M Max Pain for Bears

All things considered, the likelihood that XRP crosses $4 this year appears modest. That doesn’t mean it lacks long-term potential—on the contrary, XRP remains one of the more established cryptocurrencies with a working business model. However, for investors with near-term hopes, the path to $4 will require additional momentum and favorable conditions across both regulation and adoption.