What to Know:
- A prominent analyst has presented a bullish “origin cycle theory” suggesting XRP could see substantial gains based on historical price patterns.
- The theory identifies a five-wave structure in XRP’s price action since 2018, potentially driving the price toward $17.
- This projection aligns with other analysts’ views, contingent on factors like increased market dominance and overall crypto market growth.
XRP, a digital asset still navigating regulatory headwinds and market volatility, has caught the eye of analysts examining historical price patterns for future projections. One such analysis, dubbed the “origin cycle theory,” suggests a potential surge in XRP’s value based on recurring wave structures observed since 2018. For institutional investors, understanding these potential cycles can offer insights into entry and exit points, although with the inherent risks associated with digital asset markets.
The analyst, known as Cobb, outlined a five-wave structure in XRP’s weekly performance, tracing back to its trading inception in 2013. The first wave concluded in early 2017, coinciding with a significant bull run. This pattern recognition suggests that the current wave structure could mirror the gains seen in 2017. Institutions often rely on such cyclical analyses to gauge market sentiment and potential trend reversals, providing a framework for strategic investment decisions.
Breaking down the waves, the first wave saw XRP surge 817% from $0.00669 in October 2013 to $0.06144 by December 2013. The subsequent corrective Wave 2 led to a collapse to $0.00281 by July 2014. Wave 3 then saw a rally of 896% to $0.0280 by December 2014, failing to surpass the previous peak. A Wave 4 correction resulted in a higher low of $0.00525, followed by a rally to a new all-time high of $0.3988 in May 2017 during Wave 5. These historical retracements and rallies offer potential benchmarks for institutional traders employing algorithmic strategies and risk management models.
The second five-wave structure began almost immediately, with Wave 1 pushing XRP to $3.31 in January 2018. Wave 2 saw a collapse to $0.1140 by March 2020, marking the floor of the second structure. XRP then recovered to $1.96 in April 2021 during Wave 3, again failing to surpass the 2018 high. Following this, Wave 4 led to a low of $0.5 in November 2024. This pattern of lower highs could indicate a weakening bullish trend, a factor institutional investors would closely monitor.
According to Cobb’s analysis, XRP has now entered Wave 5, which began following President Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. The token has already breached the 2018 peak, reaching $3.66 in July 2025, suggesting further potential upside. Cobb projects that XRP could rally further, potentially reaching a new peak between $12.5 and $25.5, with an average target of $17.5. This projection is contingent on sustained market strength, a factor that could be influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.
Other market analysts have also echoed similar projections, with some suggesting XRP could reach $17 if its market dominance increases. This view aligns with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s prediction of a $5 trillion broader market cap. For institutional investors, such forecasts provide a framework for assessing potential returns, but must be weighed against the inherent volatility and regulatory uncertainty that characterize the digital asset space. Diversification and risk management remain paramount.
In conclusion, the “origin cycle theory” offers a bullish outlook for XRP based on historical price patterns, projecting a potential rise to $17. While these projections align with other analysts’ views, institutional investors should approach such forecasts with caution, considering the inherent volatility and regulatory landscape of the digital asset market. A balanced, research-driven approach remains crucial for navigating the opportunities and risks in this evolving asset class.
Source: Original article
