XRP Price Risks: Repeating 2022 Crash?

What to Know:

• Key takeaway #1 — XRP is currently trading below the average buy price of the past year, placing many holders in a loss and increasing the potential for further downside.
• Key takeaway #2 summarizing the recent sharp weekly selloff, negative whale flow, and stablecoin outflows, all contributing to downward pressure on XRP.
• Key takeaway #3 explaining that a break below $1.48 could trigger a significant price drop, while holding above the 100-2W EMA might offer a chance for recovery in late Q1 or Q2 2026.

XRP’s recent performance has put many investors in the red, as it trades below the average purchase price of the last year. The cryptocurrency is facing significant downside risks, exacerbated by negative whale flows and stablecoin outflows. A critical support level to watch is around $1.48, as a break below this point could lead to a substantial price decline, potentially mirroring the 50% crash seen in 2022. The current market dynamics suggest that XRP may struggle to find its footing in the short term.

XRP’s Price Position and Holder Status

As of Monday, XRP was trading around $1.60, a more than 20% decrease over the past week. This places it below the cost basis for many investors who bought in the last 12 months. The aggregated realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation, is near $1.48. This means a significant portion of recent XRP buyers are currently underwater, facing potential losses on their investments.

A decisive break below the $1.48 mark would put the average holder in a losing position, reminiscent of the 2022 bear market phase that resulted in a 50% drawdown to approximately $0.30. This scenario highlights the vulnerability of XRP to further price declines if it fails to maintain its current support level. The market sentiment surrounding XRP remains cautious as investors monitor these critical price levels.

Whale Activity and Its Impact

Adding to the bearish outlook for XRP, data from CryptoQuant indicates that the 90-day whale flow remains net negative. This suggests that large holders are distributing their XRP holdings rather than accumulating more. This distribution pattern from whales can exert significant downward pressure on the price of XRP, especially when new buyers are already facing losses.

When new buyers are underwater, continued selling by large holders can increase the overhead supply, making it more difficult for XRP to rebound. The combination of negative whale flows and underwater investors creates a challenging environment for XRP, potentially prolonging its price consolidation or leading to further declines. Monitoring whale activity remains crucial for gauging the potential trajectory of XRP.

How Do Stablecoin Flows Affect XRP?

Stablecoin flows into exchanges have a notable impact on the broader cryptocurrency market, including XRP. In late 2025, these flows turned sharply negative, with 30-day net outflows reaching approximately $9.6 billion. Although outflows eased in January, net flows remained negative at around $4 billion, according to data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Fewer stablecoins on exchanges reduces buying pressure, making it more challenging for XRP to rise above its realized price.

The reduced buying pressure due to stablecoin outflows can hinder XRP’s ability to recover and sustain upward momentum. This dynamic underscores the interconnectedness of various factors influencing XRP’s price. Institutional sentiment and ETF flows also play a role, but the immediate impact of reduced stablecoin availability is significant. Derivatives data further suggests caution, with funding rates reflecting a bearish bias.

What Are the Key Technical Levels to Watch?

Price charts indicate that XRP has been holding above its 100-2W exponential moving average (EMA), which is around $1.43, close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48. This level represents a critical support zone for XRP. While XRP could potentially dip into the $1.43–$1.48 support band, its two-week relative strength index (RSI) near 38 has historically preceded reversals.

If the RSI holds around 38, XRP may spend several weeks establishing a base before attempting a stronger recovery by late Q1 or Q2 2026. However, a decisive breakdown below the 100-2W EMA would invalidate this potential recovery scenario. In such a case, XRP risks sliding toward its 200-2W EMA near $1 as early as March, mirroring the breakdown that followed similar support losses in 2022. A drop to $1 would represent a roughly 36% decline from current levels, highlighting the significant downside risk.

Assessing the Potential for a Further XRP Price Crash

The combination of factors such as underwater investors, negative whale flows, and reduced stablecoin buying pressure raises the possibility of a further price crash for XRP. A critical level to monitor is the 100-2W EMA; failure to hold above this level could trigger a sharp decline towards the 200-2W EMA near $1. This scenario echoes the market dynamics observed in 2022, which resulted in a significant price drawdown for XRP.

While the two-week RSI near 38 suggests potential for a reversal, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Institutional sentiment, as reflected in ETF flows and derivatives data, will play a crucial role in determining XRP’s trajectory. The XRP Ledger’s activity and liquidity conditions will also influence its ability to withstand further downside pressure. Monitoring these factors is essential for assessing the potential for a more significant price crash or a potential recovery in the coming months.

XRP is currently facing significant headwinds, with its price below the average buy price of the past year, increasing downside risk. The cryptocurrency’s performance will depend on its ability to hold critical support levels and whether market sentiment can shift towards a more positive outlook.

Related: Crypto HYPE Signals Market Liquidity

Source: Original article