XRP reserves on Binance have surged to their highest level in a year, signaling mounting pressure in the market and raising concerns about potential price weakness. This rise in exchange reserves often points to increased willingness to sell, especially when accompanied by uncertain market sentiment.

Exchange Reserves Reach 12-Month High

As of early September, Binance’s XRP reserves reached 3.58 billion tokens—the highest they’ve been in twelve months. Historically, such reserve spikes have come before either stagnant trading periods or noticeable dips in market value.

A notable price breakdown has occurred alongside the reserve rise, as XRP slid below the critical $2.74 support level—a price that had previously served as a strong floor. This decline is being interpreted as a sign of waning demand and suggests a possible shift toward bearish market sentiment. Similar reserve increases in past months have led to sideways movement or further drops.

Whale Deposits Dip, Easing Immediate Pressure

Data from September 5 indicated that large XRP holders—often referred to as whales—shifted fewer tokens to Binance, with just 1,588 tokens transferred compared to the 30-day average of 4,715. While this smaller inflow suggests a temporary reduction in selling pressure, it doesn’t necessarily point to a full retreat by large holders.

Visual data on XRP whale-to-exchange movements via Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

On that same day, XRP showed a slight recovery, bumping from $2.74 to $2.85. This move may reflect reduced pressure caused by lowered whale deposits. However, the overall whale activity for the month remains elevated, implying that substantial transfers may have occurred earlier.

Futures Market Shows Risk of Volatility

Meanwhile, futures trading is sending additional warning signs. Open interest in XRP futures remains high at $7.43 billion, down only slightly from a recent peak of $7.59 billion. At the same time, XRP’s spot price hovered around $2.80.

Futures open interest remains elevated, suggesting potential price swings. Source: Coinglass

High open interest during a price stagnation or mild downturn often signals that traders are holding positions with leverage. If these leveraged bets start to unwind, it could result in sharp price movements due to liquidations or forced sell-offs. This makes the market particularly susceptible to increased volatility in the short term.

Market Watching Key Support and Resistance Levels

XRP’s price was last recorded at $2.81, reflecting a 1% dip over the previous 24 hours. Over the last week, the asset has seen a modest decline, further reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment.

Analysts are closely eyeing the $2.85 threshold. Crypto strategist EGRAG CRYPTO suggested that if XRP manages a close above $2.85, it could target incremental gains to $2.90, $2.95, and even $3.13.

Related: XRP Price: $12M Max Pain for Bears

However, failing to hold that support level increases the risk of a drop toward $2.65. With exchange reserves still unusually high and whale activity fluctuating, traders remain cautious. Any significant movement in the coming days could provide clearer insight into XRP’s next big shift.