XRP Signals Potential Rally; Familiar Zone

What to Know:

• XRP has spent 70 days below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a pattern historically preceding significant rallies.
• Analysts are drawing parallels between current market behavior and previous cycles, noting similarities in price compression and correction patterns.
• The recurring pattern suggests a potential upside expansion for XRP, making the monitoring of key support levels crucial for traders.

XRP is currently exhibiting a market pattern that has historically preceded major rallies, capturing the attention of analysts. The cryptocurrency has spent 70 days below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level that has acted as a springboard in past cycles. Market observers are closely monitoring whether this pattern will repeat, potentially leading to a substantial price increase.

Recurring Pattern Analysis

Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has identified a recurring pattern across three previous cycles. In 2017, XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before climbing over 200%. A similar pattern occurred in 2021, with a 49-day period below the SMA resulting in a 70% gain. In 2024, an 84-day period below the SMA preceded a surge of over 850%. The current 70-day period below the SMA is being closely watched for a potential breakout.

Comparison to Previous Market Structures

The current market structure of XRP in 2025 is being compared to setups from 2016 and 2024. In both years, the price followed a three-wave correction pattern (A-B-C) lasting between 120 to 150 days before a breakout. The 2025 chart exhibits a similar formation, now reaching 150 days. This phase is characterized by slow, sideways action and low trading volume, mirroring conditions seen before previous rallies.

Fractal Model and Potential Price Levels

Analyst Egrag Crypto has updated a fractal model that they claim has an 82% accuracy in tracking XRP’s behavior. The model suggests potential price levels of $3.20, $8.00, $15–16, and $20–27, contingent on XRP continuing to follow the established pattern. However, a break below $1.60 would weaken the model, and a move below $1.30 would invalidate it. The projected time frame for potential expansion spans from June to October 2026.

Short-Term Price Action and Risk Factors

XRP is currently priced at $1.86, reflecting a 2% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 1% decrease over the last week. CryptoWZRD noted that maintaining a price above $1.98 is crucial for sustaining bullish momentum, with support at $1.82 and resistance near $2.75. Conversely, analyst Ali Martinez has cautioned about a potential short-term correction, suggesting that XRP could decline by over 55% if key support levels are breached, potentially leading to a price target of $0.80.

Exchange Inflows and Market Sentiment

Recent data indicates an increase in XRP inflows to centralized exchanges, with Binance accounting for a significant portion of the trading volume. Rising exchange inflows are often interpreted as a signal that traders are preparing to sell, which could exert downward pressure on the price. Investors should monitor these trends closely to gauge potential market sentiment and possible price movements.

In conclusion, XRP’s current market behavior mirrors patterns observed in previous cycles, suggesting a potential for upside expansion. However, traders should remain vigilant and monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as exchange inflow trends, to navigate potential risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Related: XRP ETF Flows Hit $1.14B, Signals Rising Demand

Source: Original article