The XRP forecast has taken a bearish turn as a prominent analyst signals the potential for the token to fall to $2 due to increasing regulatory pressure from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In a recent market update, top crypto strategist EGRAG CRYPTO shared their technical outlook and explained the factors driving this dire prediction.

Bearish Trends from Key Technical Indicators

EGRAG CRYPTO, known for chart-based predictions, pointed to a concerning pattern emerging in XRP’s price activity. The analyst focused on the token’s long-standing descending triangle and emphasized an “orange support band” that currently holds prices near $2.3. If XRP breaks below this band, the next critical support levels could emerge much lower, possibly around the $2 mark.

This analysis is drawn from monthly candlestick data, which shows XRP attempting — and failing — to break above long-term resistance. Despite strong community support and occasional bullish spikes, technical momentum appears stacked against a major breakout in the short term. The analyst warns that unless XRP “reclaims” its ascending trendline, a drop toward $2 may soon materialize.

Impact of SEC Lawsuit and Market Sentiment

Another major element contributing to this bearish XRP forecast is the lingering impact of Ripple’s legal case with the SEC. The ongoing lawsuit, which began in late 2020, centers on whether XRP should be classified as a security. Although Ripple has scored partial wins in court, the final outcome remains uncertain, casting a long shadow over investor confidence.

Even with some legal clarity developing — such as the court ruling that XRP sales on exchanges are not securities — market participants remain cautious. Institutional investors, in particular, have shown reluctance, waiting for the final judgment before heavily entering XRP positions. This uncertainty has stifled price rallies and put further downward pressure on the token.

Broader Crypto Weakness Adding to the Pressure

XRP isn’t the only token facing headwinds. The broader cryptocurrency market has struggled with tightening regulations, interest rate hikes, and increasing enforcement actions in the U.S. This risk-off environment has sent investor capital into less volatile assets, reducing overall liquidity for altcoins like XRP.

Technical analysts argue that in such an environment, assets trading near critical support zones become particularly vulnerable. If selling pressure increases — perhaps triggered by another SEC filing or a market-wide event — XRP could find itself breaking below its current floor.

Analyst’s Take and Community Response

EGRAG CRYPTO remains cautiously bearish. While hopeful of a bounce if XRP can reclaim its ascending trendline, the short-term outlook leans clearly toward a correction. With a growing consensus among traders about losing support levels, sentiment continues to decline.

Still, XRP supporters remain vocal. The XRP community on social platforms like X (formerly Twitter) continues to urge patience, citing Ripple’s partnerships and growing cross-border use cases as long-term fundamentals that could eventually spur price recovery. Others warn of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) tactics possibly influencing investor behavior.

Traders are closely watching XRP’s monthly charts as bearish trends deepen.

What to Watch Moving Forward

As the XRP forecast remains under scrutiny, analysts recommend keeping a close eye on long-term trendlines and any developments in the Ripple v. SEC case. Positive court rulings or unexpected bullish volume could reverse the current trend. However, without clear catalysts, a fall to $2 now looks increasingly plausible.

Related: XRP Price: $12M Max Pain for Bears

For now, traders and investors are advised to remain vigilant. With the SEC continuing its aggressive stance and macroeconomic factors challenging crypto markets broadly, XRP’s short-term fate may be shaped more by regulatory headlines than technical resilience.