Bitcoin Dominance Rises as Altcoin Unit Bias Misleads Investors

Bitcoin dominance continues to surge, highlighting a growing challenge for crypto investors: the deceptive impact of altcoin unit bias. According to Jan3 CEO Samson Mow, this psychological tendency is skewing investor perceptions and pushing newcomers toward less favorable investment decisions.

Mow suggests that Bitcoin’s share of market value is far from its ceiling, having already surpassed expectations for late 2024. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), he strongly criticized unit bias, stating, “Unit bias is absolutely destroying the uninitiated.”

Unit bias refers to a cognitive shortcut in behavioral economics where individuals prefer whole units of a cheaper product rather than a fraction of a more expensive one—even when the more expensive unit holds greater value. This mindset often lures new investors into buying full altcoins instead of fractional Bitcoin, misinterpreting “cheaper” as synonymous with “better value.”

Mow Challenges Altcoin Valuations Without Bias

Mow raised a thought-provoking question: what if all cryptocurrencies were evaluated on equal footing based on their total supply?

“You can buy one twenty-one millionth of the BTC supply for about $85,000,” Mow explained. Planting this benchmark, he demonstrated what major altcoins would be worth if their market cap matched Bitcoin’s on a per-unit basis—ignoring total supply disparities.

His recalculations showed shocking numbers: Ether (ETH) would be valued at $9,200, XRP (XRP) at $5,800, and Solana (SOL) at $3,400. These hypothetical prices signal increases of 278,746%, 470%, and 2,328%, respectively. This data, derived from CoinMarketCap, reflects widespread valuation distortions when unit bias is considered.

Mow concluded that “there’s no way these alts are worth that much,” emphasizing how many utility-deprived altcoins artificially inflate supply figures to appear more affordable and attractive to uninformed traders.

Supporters of this viewpoint include Bitcoin advocate Sunny Po, who asserted, “Unit bias is a core foundational framework of the normie mind. ‘Cheaper better.’” Mow further argued that high supply altcoins exploit this bias, making it difficult for retail participants to truly understand a token’s actual worth.

As a result, Mow expects Bitcoin dominance to increase notably. Bitcoin dominance is a widely used metric calculating Bitcoin’s share of the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization. It often guides investors on potential broader market trends—especially in determining whether altcoin season is imminent.

Historically, rising Bitcoin dominance suggests a consolidated BTC market, while a decline often triggers altcoin influx as investors seek sharper returns elsewhere.

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin dominance stands at 63.69%—well above previous forecasts.

Earlier in 2024, several analysts predicted that Bitcoin’s market share would top out around 60% before altcoin season began. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, stated in August, “I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, my target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%.” Mow’s data now challenges this narrative, indicating that dominance growth may not only continue but accelerate.

For crypto investors, especially beginners, Mow’s insights serve as a crucial warning. Judging coins solely by price per unit rather than value per market share can lead to poor investment choices. Transparent comparisons, like Mow’s no-bias evaluations, may help recalibrate investor focus back to the fundamentals—like scarcity, utility, and adoption.

Related reading: XRP: Why it’s outperforming altcoins — and what comes next

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin continues its upward trend in market dominance, new investors may need to shift their strategies. With a clearer understanding of how unit bias affects decision-making, more informed crypto investments could follow.

Related: Expert Advice: Sell XRP If You’re Confused

For more analysis on market sentiment and forecasts, check out Altcoin Season to Hit in Q2? Mantra’s Plan to Win Trust